Awarded to the most valuable player during the NHL playoffs, the Conn Smythe Trophy is one of hockey’s hardest awards to predict. The race can shift dramatically from one night to the next, especially during a postseason that has already featured standout performances across nearly every series.
Several stars have already emerged as serious contenders, but no player has fully separated from the field just yet. At the same time, a few unexpected names have also worked their way into the conversation, proving just how unpredictable this award can be.
As the Stanley Cup playoffs roll along, the Conn Smythe race continues to evolve with every passing game. Deep playoff runs, clutch plays and big moments still have the power to sway voters at any time. With that in mind, here are the players with the strongest case to win this year’s Conn Smythe Trophy.
Nathan MacKinnon (+195)
MacKinnon has emerged as the current favourite to win the 2026 Conn Smythe Trophy, and it’s easy to see why. The superstar forward has led the Avalanche deep into the postseason, guiding the Presidents’ Trophy winners into the Western Conference Final while once again looking like the best player in the world.
Few players in the NHL can completely change the pace of a game the way MacKinnon can. With 13 points (7g, 6a) through his first 9 games, he’s the driving force behind Colorado’s explosive offensive attack. Whether it is blowing past defenders with his speed, throwing his weight around in the corners or scoring timely goals, he keeps finding ways to take over games.
Already expected to win this year’s Hart Trophy, MacKinnon has the chance to become just the fourth player in NHL history to win both the regular-season and playoff MVP awards in the same year. If the Avalanche make it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, it is hard to imagine him not being right at the centre of the Conn Smythe conversation.
Frederik Andersen (+450)
Only one goalie has claimed the award since 2013, but Frederik Andersen is building a case that’s becoming harder to ignore. The veteran netminder has been outstanding for the Hurricanes, quietly becoming one of the biggest reasons behind their playoff success.
Through the opening two rounds, Andersen has put on an absolute clinic between the pipes. He leads the NHL in nearly all major goaltending categories, including wins (8), GAA (1.12), save percentage (.950) and shutouts (2). That level of consistency is a huge reason Carolina has been so good in these playoffs.
While he hasn’t exactly been pushed to the limit yet with Carolina rolling through two straight sweeps, things could change when he faces the Canadiens in the Eastern Conference Final. If Andersen keeps playing at this level, it will become increasingly difficult to argue against him in the race for this year’s Conn Smythe.
Mitch Marner (+1000)
Few players have done more to change their playoff reputation this year than Mitch Marner. After years of criticism during his time with the Maple Leafs, Marner has looked very different during this year’s postseason run with the Golden Knights.
He currently leads the NHL playoffs in scoring with 18 points (7g, 11a) through Vegas’ first 12 games, but it’s the overall confidence in his game that has stood out the most. He looks far more assertive offensively, attacking space with the puck, making plays under pressure and consistently finding ways to impact games in key moments.
Marner has quickly gone from playoff scapegoat in Toronto to building a legitimate Conn Smythe case in Vegas. The deeper Vegas goes with Marner leading the way offensively, the stronger his case becomes.
Taylor Hall (+1200)
Hall has become one of the most interesting dark horse candidates for this award. The former Hart Trophy winner has been outstanding for the Hurricanes, delivering timely offence while helping drive one of the league’s deepest and most structured teams.
The 34-year-old has been completely rejuvenated during this postseason run. His speed through the neutral zone has created problems for defenders all playoffs long, while his ability to generate offence off the rush has added another dangerous element to Carolina’s attack. Over the course of the first two rounds, he has 12 points (3g, 9a) in just 8 games played.
With Carolina widely expected to come out of the Eastern Conference, Hall’s case for playoff MVP is starting to gain some real momentum. He’s consistently produced throughout the postseason, and another strong series or two could see him emerge as an unlikely Conn Smythe winner.
Jakub Dobes (+3300)
No player has come further out of nowhere to join this year’s Conn Smythe race than Jakub Dobes. Montreal’s rookie goaltender has quickly become one of the best stories in this year’s playoffs, helping backstop Montreal to an unexpected postseason run while delivering elite goaltending on a nightly basis.
Dobes has been outstanding over the opening two rounds, posting solid numbers while repeatedly coming through with huge saves for the Canadiens. His Game 7 performances against Tampa Bay and Buffalo have helped elevate his profile, as he’s shown an ability to stay calm and composed in the biggest moments.
Playoff hockey in Montreal comes with enormous pressure, especially for a young goalie, but Dobes has looked composed beyond his years. A trip to the Stanley Cup Final would only strengthen his case as a serious Conn Smythe contender. If Dobes manages to win this award, you can expect to see a lot more stop signs in Montreal with his name on them.
