Stanley Cup time is here, and David Alter is running it back with his tried and tested method for sniffing out some value.
It’s my favourite time of the hockey season. It’s finally warm outside, and 16 NHL teams have dropped the puck on the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. If you aren’t at the games, you are able to flip back and forth and watch all the action from the comfort of your own home. But one of my favourite things to do is fill out my bracket for the Cup.
I use a proprietary model for making my selection. I solely look at the data from the March 6 NHL Trade Deadline and onward. My theory behind this is simple. Over the course of my years covering the NHL, I’ve found that the pace and style of play in October is a lot more wide open. As the season gets closer to the end, there’s less space out there and the games get tight and defensive. Teams also go through tremendous change throughout a year, and the weight of the trade deadline looms large. Once the dust settles and the deadline is lifted, your team is your team. That’s where I firmly believe the data is most true.
Along with that, I don’t look at whether teams won during that time, but mostly how well they played and if they deserved to win. I assess my own internal score; if teams play well in consecutive games, their score goes up exponentially. The opposite is also true. Using that proprietary system, I get some unique results. In the past, it has allowed me to accurately predict some of the biggest upsets in the playoffs. In 2019, it accurately predicted the Columbus Blue Jackets upsetting the Tampa Bay Lightning. More recently, my model called Florida’s first-round upset over the seemingly unbeatable Boston Bruins in the first round of the 2023 playoffs.
So, let’s take a look at my picks for the opening round.
Western Conference
Colorado Avalanche (C1) vs. Los Angeles Kings (WC2)
The Avalanche have dominated this season. It’s hard to see them losing their edge when they take on a Los Angeles Kings team that is in the playoffs this year solely because they knew how to get into overtime. I do think this series will be closer than people expect.
- Pick: Avalanche in 7 games
Dallas Stars (C2) vs. Minnesota Wild (C3)
It’s a shame these two teams have to meet in the first round. They really both deserve weaker opponents. The NHL wants division rivals, so they are certainly going to get that here with Quinn Hughes’ first taste of playoffs in the Central. The Stars have just been too good. I expect Mikko Rantanen to help them get through in this one.
- Pick: Stars in 5 games
Vegas Golden Knights (P1) vs. Utah Mammoth (WC1)
If this were a month ago, I might call for Utah to pull a “Mammoth” upset (see what I did there?). But the Golden Knights are the hottest team in the NHL since replacing Bruce Cassidy as coach with John Tortorella, and they look like they can’t be stopped.
- Pick: Golden Knights in 6 games
Edmonton Oilers (P2) vs. Anaheim Ducks (P3)
The Oilers are used to seeing Southern California NHL teams, but they get a fresh opponent in the Anaheim Ducks this time around. After twice losing in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Connor McDavid doesn’t will his team past the rookie team at the dance.
- Pick: Oilers in 6 games
Eastern Conference
Buffalo Sabres (A1) vs. Boston Bruins (WC1)
Congrats to the Buffalo Sabres, who struggled early in the season only to finish hard in 2026 and break an NHL-long 15-year playoff drought. The arena is going to be electric when they play their first game in the series on Sunday. The Bruins’ playoff drought lasted only one year after what seemingly looked like a successful retool.
- Pick: Sabres in 6 games
Tampa Bay Lightning (A2) vs. Montreal Canadiens (A3)
The Montreal Canadiens remind me of the 2018 Toronto Maple Leafs: a young core that appears ready to build off their playoff experience from a year ago. The only problem is Tampa is a juggernaut, and I can’t see them losing here.
- Pick: Lightning in 5 games
Carolina Hurricanes (M1) vs. Ottawa Senators (WC2)
This is a battle where both teams have played well, only to see their goaltending disappoint them. I think that plays better for the Hurricanes, who appear ready to finally bust out of their lulls of not getting past the second round.
- Pick: Hurricanes in 5 games
Pittsburgh Penguins (M2) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (M3)
The state of Pennsylvania will be loving it, as a pair of teams nobody really gave a chance at making the postseason are in. The Penguins weren’t very strong down the stretch, while the Flyers had to claw their way in at the end. I still give the edge to Sidney Crosby.
- Pick: Penguins in 7 games
The Final Verdict
My Eastern Conference pick goes to the Hurricanes, while I take the Golden Knights to win the West. In June, I see former Leaf Mitch Marner winning the Stanley Cup, as is the way.