The 126th US Open lands this Thursday at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York, and most betting previews will tell you the same three things: Scottie Scheffler (+600 at Ozoon) is the chalk, Rory McIlroy (+1200) has value as the second favourite, and in the end, someone with longer odds will probably win. All true. But if everyone knows it, where’s your betting edge?
If you want to find the best value on the US Open odds board here at Ozoon, we have to dig a little deeper. Shinnecock Hills is a brutal links course with rock-hard fairways and greens, thick rough, and four of the most difficult par-3 holes in golf. This will be the sixth time Shinnecock Hills has hosted this major; only twice (Raymond Floyd in 1986, Retief Goosen in 2004) has the eventual winner finished under par.
With that in mind, the five golf picks we’re featuring here were plucked from betting markets that casual fans tend to overlook – placement bets, tournament specials, pretty much everything other than the outright winner. And we’ve included one Canadian golfer whom even those of us north of the border have yet to fully appreciate.
1. Winner NOT in the Final Pairing on Sunday (+150)
Let’s start with the tournament special that few casual bettors even know about. The format for the final round of the US Open has everyone teeing off in twosomes, in order from highest score to lowest; in case of a tie, the golfer who posted their third-round score earlier gets to tee off later. This means the top two leaders on the scoreboard – again, ties notwithstanding – will be in Sunday’s final pairing.
While these two golfers will have the advantage over the rest of the field, it hardly guarantees victory, not at Shinnecock Hills. A one- or two-stroke lead here means less than it does at, say, the Masters, where the birdies flow relatively freely. Floyd came back from three strokes down to beat Greg Norman in 1986; Norman and Tom Lehman were co-leaders in 1995 before Corey Pavin overcame them on the back nine.
Of course, there’s a slim chance someone will take a monster lead this Saturday. More realistically, we have Goosen winning in 2004 after going up two through 54 holes, and Brooks Koepka prevailing in 2018 as one of four golfers tied for the clubhouse lead. The other US Open held at Shinnecock Hills was way back in 1896, when it was a one-day event, so that leaves us at 2-2 for this wager. It’s a small sample size, but would you rather take the other side of this bet at –200? Or would you rather back the field of around 70 other golfers who made the cut?
2. Tommy Fleetwood – Top 5 Finish (+350)
He’s one of the more popular golfers on tour these days, thanks in part to the Full Swing series on Netflix, so everyone’s falling over themselves to pick Fleetwood at +1800 to win. Only three golfers enter this year’s US Open with shorter odds. It could happen, but this isn’t the betting value you’re looking for.
For one thing, Fleetwood has yet to win a major. But he did finish second to Koepka in 2018 after posting an incredible 63 on the final round; the previous year, Fleetwood was fourth, and he placed T5 in 2023, giving the affable Englishman three Top-5 results in 10 career attempts at the US Open.
The math works out. You’re getting a +350 payout if Fleetwood can do it again this week, which translates to an implied probability of 22.2%. You’re also backing someone who’s in fine form, with a T5 at Quail Hollow and a T4 at Muirfield Village among his last four tournaments.
3. Patrick Reed – Top 20 Finish (+175)
There was a time when Reed was one of the more fashionable picks in golf betting. That was back in 2018, when Reed won the Masters and finished fourth behind Koepka at the US Open. But things went sideways in 2021 when Reed contracted double pneumonia, and he left for LIV Golf the following year.
Despite joining the recent exodus away from LIV, Reed remains ineligible to return to the PGA Tour until August – but this is the US Open, and Reed is allowed to play because he’s in the Official World Golf Ranking Top 60, checking in at No. 21 following the PGA Championship cut-off. That makes Reed the highest-ranking golfer in the field who wasn’t otherwise exempt already.
Reed also climbed back into the Top-60 this year by playing on the DP World Tour, aka the European Tour. These were all desert and parkland courses in the Gulf region and South Africa, not the links back in Europe, but Reed does have a successful body of work at venues like Shinnecock Hills, where his controlled ball-striking and elite short game are rewarded handsomely. Consider this a “buy low” opportunity on someone just returning from the LIV wastelands.
4. Sudarshan Yellamaraju – Top 20 Finish (+425)
Even if this one’s a bit of a flier, we’d be remiss if we didn’t include the hottest commodity in Canadian golf. Yellamaraju (No. 96 on the OWGR) still has some work to do before he catches up to Corey Conners (No. 56) and Nick Taylor (No. 63), but the India-born pride of Mississauga is trending in the right direction at age 24 – including his T8 result at last week’s Canadian Open at Osprey Valley.
While the form is promising, we do have to pump the brakes for just a moment. This will be Yellamaraju’s first US Open, and just his second career major after missing the cut at this year’s PGA Championship. But that T5 result at The Players Championship – the unofficial “fifth major” on the Tour – proves that Yellamaraju can hang with the best. A small speculative wager here is reasonable when there’s a +425 payday at the end of the rainbow.
5. Bryson DeChambeau – To Miss the Cut (+170)
Lastly, we have our top fade candidate for this week’s Open. DeChambeau is one of the most talented golfers in the world, and he deserves credit for improving his overall game, but he’s still one of those “grip it and rip it” guys whose profile just doesn’t match the course he’ll be playing. DeChambeau doesn’t have nearly the same accuracy off the tee as his counterparts; chances are he’ll end up buried somewhere in that thick rough on more than one occasion.
As for his recent form, DeChambeau missed the cut in three of his last four majors, starting with last year’s US Open and continuing at this year’s Masters and PGA Championship. That knocks the former World’s No. 4 golfer all the way down to No. 32 at press time. Maybe he’ll get his groove back if and when he leaves LIV Golf behind like Reed and Koepka have. Did he “quiet quit” when he withdrew from the LIV Mexico City event in April after three rounds with a mystery injury?
There are hundreds more ways you can bet on the US Open this week at Ozoon Sportsbook, so you should find some betting value beyond our Top 5 picks if you look hard enough. Visit our golf odds page, keep hitting the refresh button for the latest lines, and we’ll see you at Shinnecock Hills.